Public Concerns About Foreign Interference in Ukraine’s 2019 Presidential Election

This is the second survey aimed at assessing public opinion about possible outside influences on Ukraine’s 2019 presidential elections. The survey asked participants to say how strong that influence, if any, would be and of what quality: positive or negative.

Comparing the two surveys conducted over a period of three months (the first before the official start of the campaign, the second four weeks before election day) allows us to gauge perceptions of both prevailing sources of external influence and certain changes in the ratings.

As always, these figures should not be interpreted as verified facts. They show people’s expectations based on and influenced by a number of factors: personal experience, information from different sources, general attitude toward states and organizations listed, etc. This data also reveals voters’ concern about external actors’ possible interference in Ukraine’s domestic affairs. On the one hand, such awareness could make the voters more attentive and resistant. On the other hand, there is a possibility that certain actors could use such awareness to question whether a newly elected president has won legitimately through a democratic exercise–and not by foreign manipulation.

How strong will the influence of international organizations and some foreign states be on Ukraine’s presidential election? (only one answer for each question)

 StrongMediumWeakNo influenceHard to say
 Dec. 2018March 2019Dec. 2018March 2019Dec. 2018March 2019Dec. 2018March 2019Dec. 2018March 2019
European Union20.218.522.926.516.916.821.822.618.215.5
NATO14.316.118.719.016.015.130.232.520.717.4
OSCE10.812.719.617.917.416.531.033.421.219.6
UN9.812.517.016.317.215.633.436.922.518.6
Council of Europe11.513.318.917.918.015.328.032.123.621.4
Russia38.243.016.723.012.28.915.111.717.813.4
Commonwealth of Independent States11.210.917.019.118.415.827.631.525.822.7
United States25.926.220.920.914.413.319.821.919.017.9

What do you think the quality of the influence of international organizations and some foreign states on Ukraine’s presidential election? “Positive” means one that facilitates honest, transparent, and democratic elections. “Negative” means one that creates uneven conditions for candidates for presidency. (only one answer for each question)

 PositiveNegativeNo influenceHard to say
 Dec. 2018March 2019Dec. 2018March 2019Dec. 2018March 2019Dec. 2018March 2019
European Union34.332.916.319.925.624.023.923.2
NATO23.619.416.921.333.735.325.924.0
OSCE24.623.013.216.234.436.027.824.7
UN21.820.613.215.336.740.728.423.4
Council of Europe23.922.213.816.633.135.829.225.3
Russia6.27.353.558.918.515.321.718.5
Commonwealth of Independent States7.98.125.626.134.436.732.229.0
United States24.123.222.526.523.723.829.726.5

 The survey was conducted by the Razumkov Centre’s Sociological Service in cooperation with Democratic Initiatives Foundation from March 1-6, 2019. The sample consisted of 2,019 respondents aged 18 and over, in all regions of Ukraine except Crimea and occupied areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The sampling error does not exceed 2.3 percent.